QE3 Has Already Started

by madhedgefundtrader

Most analysts have missed the fact that QE3 has already started in earnest. Of course, it would have been easy to miss. Ben Bernanke has not made any grand pronouncements. He hasn’t done some public thinking out loud, as he did among friends at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last August. It is not even called “QE3”. Think of it as a “stealth QE3”. But make no mistake. A new variety of quantitative easing has already begun in a big way.

The new QE3 is the “RISK OFF” trade. QE2 ended up pouring $600 billion into stocks, commodities, oil, gold, and silver. Since April 29, the prospect of slowing economic growth has prompted this hot money to take flight and bail from these assets classes. Think of it as the same $600 billion stampeding into risky markets, doing a 180, and then stampeding right back out again.

Where is all this money going? Into the Treasury bond market

The beauty of this plan is that it has no government fingerprints on it. They are getting private investors to do the heavy lifting for them. That will make them immune from attacks from anti-interventionists, like the Tea Party, and anti-Federal Reservists, like Ron Paul. Bernanke can just sit back and let natural market forces do his handiwork for him.

Keep in mind that the next Recession will be far worse than the last one. None of the problems of the 2008-2009 debacle, like too big to fail, the real estate collapse, and the burgeoning bad debts on bank balance sheets, have really been solved. The can has merely been kicked forward. The only difference will be that there will be no TARP and no bail outs next time. The chips will fall where they want.

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