Tuesday, February 22, 2011

If this is an economic blog, then why am I posting articles about mid-east turmoil?

If you've been around the block once or twice, you probably realize by now that the short story is:  Oil -> Gas -> Production equipment -> Goods & services -> You

Turmoil in the mid-east can dramatically affect the price of oil.  Oil prices directly affect the price of gasoline.  And while gas prices alone have a dramatic affect on our wallets and relative income, they also have a dramatic affect on the cost of other goods and services.
Crude oil accounts for 55% of the price of gasoline, while distribution and taxes influence the remaining 45%. Usually, distribution and taxes are stable, so that the daily change in the price of gasoline accurately reflects oil price fluctuations. Occasionally, however, distribution lines are disrupted or are down for maintenance, which can increase the price of gasoline even when oil prices are down.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/supply/p/oil_gas_prices.htm

The cost of gas/oil/natural gas has a dramatic affect on the costs of food because (1) The mechanized agriculture systems in use today (ie: tractors, plows, combines) consume a considerable amount of gasoline in order to harvest and otherwise produce the food that must then be (2) delivered to the stores via transportation that also uses petroleum based fuel (ie: Trains, trucks, etc).  (3) The fertilizer and other products used to grow crops require fuels as well.  ALl these costs must be passed on to the consumer, or the retail establishment, shipping companies, farmers, etc will not make a profit.  Without profit, there is no commerce, and no economy.  They have mouths to feed to 'eh?


Gasoline prices are likely to have a large impact on consumer spending but a much smaller impact on the amount of gasoline purchased. Instead, the effect is likely to be felt in other areas of spending (e.g., vacations, entertainment, electronics, or eating out). - Lars Perner, Ph.D.

http://www.consumerpsychologist.com/gasoline_prices.htm

So I submit to you that when the price of Gas goes up, it isn't your car's MPG that you should be worrying about (well, not that alone anyway).  Americans tend to live in homes that are fairly distant from their jobs (ie: cant walk, and public transportation doesn't always get you there), and geographically diverse enough that 90% of us can't carpool to the same destinations.  So our gas usage isn't really going to change much.  Buying and hoarding gas wont help you.  A typical family of 4 can use 200 gallons per month.  Do you have a place to store 200 gallons of gas?  And that will only get you by for a month.

Instead, consider where else you can improve you bottom line.  Because those goods & services that we use on a daily basis are gonna be the real killer.

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